Morgan Stanley Q1 earnings: why it isn’t too late to invest in MS stock

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is inching higher on Wednesday after the Wall Street giant reported record-breaking first-quarter results that blew past analyst expectations.

The financial services stock is rallying today as investors cheer a massive resurgence in investment banking and double-digit growth in its flagship Wealth Management division.

Despite a complex global backdrop, the firm proved its “integrated” model can deliver high-octane growth across both fee-based and market-sensitive businesses.

Versus its year-to-date low, Morgan Stanley stock is now up more than 20%.

Morgan Stanley earnings – the positives

The bull case for MS shares was on full display this quarter as the firm notched record net revenues of $20.6 billion.

The bank also saw its profit jump 29% to $5.57 billion, or $3.43 a share. 

The standout performer was the Institutional Securities segment, where investment banking revenue rose 36% to $2.1 billion.

The increase was driven by a nearly 74% jump in M&A advisory fees, signalling a revival in dealmaking activity and suggesting that the long-anticipated reopening of capital markets is gaining traction.

Simultaneously, Wealth Management remains a juggernaut, bringing in a “record” $118 billion in net new assets during the first quarter alone.

With a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 27.1%, Morgan Stanley is operating at a level of efficiency that justifies a premium valuation.

In the earnings release, CEO Ted Pick himself characterised the period as a record quarter of strong execution globally.

Morgan Stanley earnings – the negatives

While the headline numbers were sterling, there were pockets of “dovish” data that warrant some pause.

The “Investment Management” division saw a 4% decline in net revenues, falling to $1.5 billion as performance-based income and carried interest in private funds slumped compared to the prior year.

Plus, non-interest expenses rose to $13.5 billion, driven by an 11% increase in compensation costs as the firm paid out for its high performance.

There was also a “slight” uptick in provisions for credit losses related specifically to individual assessments of commercial real estate loans, highlighting ongoing sensitivity to the high-interest-rate environment and macroeconomic uncertainty.

These rising costs could cap margin expansion if revenue growth were to decelerate in the coming months – and are, therefore, somewhat dovish for Morgan Stanley shares.

How to play Morgan Stanley stock after Q1 earnings

Despite the aforementioned pockets of weakness, the strategy for MS stock post-earnings appears to be one of “buy the momentum”.

The firm’s aggressive capital return policy remains a major draw; during Q1, it repurchased $1.75 billion of its own stock and maintained a healthy $1.00 per share quarterly dividend.

Technically, Morgan Stanley is testing major resistance levels, and the fundamental strength in its fee-based businesses suggests it’s poised for a breakout ahead.

Traders may look for a brief consolidation period to enter positions, but with the Investment Banking pipeline finally converting into realised fees and Wealth Management scaling rapidly, the long-term outlook remains bullish.

As long as the ROTCE stays above management’s 20% target, the bank stock remains a top-tier “all-weather” financial play.

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